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Rafael Benitez has long been the market leader in Next Premier League Manager to Leave Their Post bets, with Claudio Ranieri shortening in recent weeks to contest him for favoritism.
But while Everton and Watford’s managers are living on borrowed time, the second-best Marcelo Bielsa is a double-digit price to leave next time.
The rest of the top executives seem pretty well intertwined in their roles, which makes us ask the question of when will the No Manager to Leave bet come into play.
Still available in some places on 20/1, the price will undoubtedly shorten as the season progresses and Benitez and Ranieri meet their fates.
So Planet Sport looks at the earliest a No Manager to Leave bet has paid off. We also pick the most popular month to fire managers and highlight the bosses who left the season almost finished.
Lack of layoffs early?
Two seasons of Premier League football have seen only one managerial loss. In the first campaign in 1992/93, Ian Porterfield left Chelsea in February, while Roy McFarland and Bolton Wanderers in the 1965/96 season split in January.
But do not be fooled into believing that a rash of managerial layoffs in a recent development. In the 1994/95 campaign, nine leaders left their posts. That figure has only been exceeded twice, in 2013/14 and 2017/18, where ten management changes have taken place in both campaigns.
Come through November and December and you have a chance
The most popular month for manager redundancies is November, when 32 bosses have left their roles in the Premier League. December follows closely after the 30th, with 20 leaders raised in October, January and March.
The least popular month for a departure is August, where only five executives have gone during the season’s opening month.
However, Nigel Pearson deserves special mention as the only manager to lose their job during the July season. Pearson was fired as Watford manager in July 2020 with only two games left of the COVID-hit campaign.
Christmas cheer a scarce commodity for Warnock
There were only six departures in the 2014/15 campaign and we had to wait until December 27 for the first of them, when Neil Warnock got his marching orders at Crystal Palace.
The 20/21 season saw the first firing also in December, when Slaven Bilic was on its way out to West Brom. However, the season started a month later, on September 2nd.
When backing No Manager to Leave early has paid off
In addition to McFarland (January 2), January provided the final managerial firing of the 2007/08 campaign, with Sam Allardyce being replaced by Kevin Keegan at Newcastle on January 9.
Three times in February, the final manager has seen his position leave his post. Porterfield left on 15 February, with Tony Adams (Portsmouth) and Luiz Felipe Scolari (Chelsea) both leaving on 9 February 2009 and Fulham firing Ranieri on 28 February 2019.
If you placed a bet on No Manager to Leave on March 1, it would have paid out six times in the 29 completed Premier League seasons.
Leaders fired with the end in sight
But while it is not uncommon for there to be no departures after February, seven executives have lost their jobs as late as May.
And anyone who places a No Manager to Leave bet cannot rest easy before the 38th and final game.
With a match left of the 2010/11 season, Avram Grant was sacked at West Ham after Irons’ relegation to the Championship was confirmed.
Roberto Mancini got the ball from Manchester City with a league match left of 2012/13, while Roberto Martinez was shown the door by Everton in May 2015/16 with only Norwich City playing. It was a move that paid off instantly when toffees under caretaker managers Joe Royle and David Unsworth, after a win out of 10, beat the Canary Islands 3-0.
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