Projection of the NFL playoff picture: Which teams have clinched, what’s at stake today and predicted final seeds

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Several NFL playoff spots are still in play in Week 18, along with a few division titles. We project the last 14 off-season teams and their seedings all day long – along with the two-team race for the NFL draft top picks.

Six divisions have already been cleared and the No. 1 seed in the NFC belongs to the Packers. But the AFC East crown is at stake between the Bills and Patriots, and the Rams are trying to hold the Cardinals for the NFC West title. Five teams are vying for the final two playoff spots in the AFC, and the 49ers and Saints are in a last-day battle for the final NFC wildcard spot. Meanwhile, the Titans need a win to beat the Chiefs to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Finally, on the other side of the standings, the Jaguars and Lions each have a chance to pick No. 1 in the April draft.

We follow the playoff picture live – in both AFC and NFC – and the race for the No. 1 draft pick on Sunday. We will update playoff chances and expected seedings from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) periodically over the course of the 14 matches, showing how the playoff landscape changes as the matches are played. Clinching scenarios are also provided for each team. Keep checking back all day long to get the most up-to-date view of the playoff teams and seedings based on these FPI forecasts.

LAST UPDATED: Sunday Dinner ET

Team fight:
ARI | BAL | BUF | CIN | DAL | GB
IND | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | NE
NO | PHI | PIT | SF | TB | TEN

Top draft watch selection:
JAX | THAT

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Expected AFC playoff position

ten

What Tennessee has already found: The Titans are in the playoffs and they won the AFC South crown in Week 17 for their second division title in a row.

What’s at stake for the Titans on Sunday: If the Titans beat Houston, they’re the AFC’s top seed. If not, the Chiefs will claim the No. 1 spot in the AFC. Tennessee can finish anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4.

What ESPN’s FPI says: Tennessee has a 74% chance of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Follow games that matter: TI-HOU (13.00 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: Goodbye


kc

What Kansas City has already found: The Chiefs are in the playoffs and are the AFC West champions for the sixth season in a row. On Saturday, they ended their regular season with a 28-24 victory over the Broncos to secure at least No. 2 in the AFC.

What’s at stake for the Chiefs on Sunday: The Titans are holding a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs, so Kansas City needs a Tennessee loss to finish at the top of the AFC.

What ESPN’s FPI says: Kansas City has a 26% chance of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Follow games that matter: TI-HOU (13.00 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: vs. Chargers


buf

What Buffalo has already got: The Bills secured a playoff spot in Week 17.

What’s at stake for the bills on Sunday: Buffalo may not finish with the top seed in the AFC, but it can win the AFC East through one of two simple routes. A win over the Jets gives them the division title, just like a Patriots loss to Miami.

What ESPN’s FPI says: Buffalo has a 95% chance of winning the AFC East.

Follow games that matter: NYJ-BUF (16:25 ET) | NE-MIA (16:25 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: vs. Colts


cin

What Cincinnati has already found: The Bengals are in the playoffs after winning the AFC North in Week 17. It is their first playoff spot and first division title since 2015.

What’s at stake for the Bengals on Sunday: Not a whole lot. Cincinnati may not get the No. 1 seed after Kansas City’s victory on Saturday, and it could be No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 in the conference.

Follow games that matter: CIN-CLE (13.00 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: vs. Patriots


ne

What New England has already achieved: The Patriots are in the playoffs and returning after a year-long hiatus.

What’s at stake for the Patriots on Sunday: If New England beats Miami and the Bills lose to the Jets, the Patriots would jump into the top four seeds and win the AFC East for the 12th time in the last 13 seasons.

What ESPN’s FPI says: The Patriots have a 5% chance of winning the AFC East.

Follow games that matter: NE-MIA (16:25 ET) | NYJ-BUF (16:25 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: at Bengals


ind

What Indianapolis has already found: Nothing yet. Indy has been eliminated from the AFC South controversy, so it’s a wild card or bust for the Colts.

What’s at stake for the Colts on Sunday: It’s victory and inside for the Colts, but they would also reach the AFC’s top seven with a Steelers loss, a Chargers loss and a Dolphins victory.

What ESPN’s FPI says: Indianapolis has an 81% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Follow games that matter: IND-JAX (13.00 ET) | PIT-BAL (13.00 ET) | LAC-LV (20:20 ET) | NE-MIA (16:25 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: at Bills


lac

What Los Angeles has already found: Nothing yet. The Chargers may not win AFC West, but they still have plenty of hope for a wildcard spot.

What’s at stake for the Chargers on Sunday: Los Angeles controls its fate. Regardless of other results, the Chargers will make it to the playoffs if they win or draw. But a loss eliminates them.

What ESPN’s FPI says: Los Angeles has a 59% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Follow games that matter: LAC-LV (20:20 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: at Chiefs


Currently expected outside the playoffs

lv

What Las Vegas has already achieved: Nothing yet. The Raiders may not win AFC West, but a playoff spot is very much still on the table.

What’s at stake for the Raiders on Sunday: Las Vegas can win the playoffs with either (A) a win, (B) a draw and a Colts loss, or (C) loss of the Colts and Steelers.

What ESPN’s FPI says: The Raiders have a 48% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Follow games that matter: LAC-LV (20:20 ET) | IND-JAX (13.00 ET) | PIT-BAL (13.00 ET)


pit

What Pittsburgh has already found: Nothing yet. The Steelers can’t win AFC North and they need help getting into the playoffs.

What’s at stake for the Steelers on Sunday: To reach the playoffs, Pittsburgh needs a win and a Colts loss. But it also needs Sunday night’s Chargers-Raiders game to not end in a draw.

What ESPN’s FPI says: The Steelers have a 9% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Follow games that matter: PIT-BAL (13.00 ET) | IND-JAX (13.00 ET) | LAC-LV (20:20 ET)


bal

What Baltimore has already found: Nothing yet. The Ravens cannot win AFC North, and even though they win on Sunday, they need additional help to cope with the mail season.

What’s at stake for the Ravens on Sunday: To reach the playoffs, Baltimore need a win and a trio of losses – by the Colts, Chargers and Dolphins.

What ESPN’s FPI says: The Ravens have a 3% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Follow games that matter: PIT-BAL (13.00 ET) | IND-JAX (13.00 ET) | LAC-LV (20:20 ET) | NE-MIA (16:25 ET)

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Expected NFC playoff position

gb

What Green Bay has already found out: The Packers can relax in Week 18. They won NFC North and got the No. 1 seed of the conference – which includes a farewell in the wildcard round. Win or lose in Detroit, Green Bay will be NFC’s top team going into the playoffs and playing first in the division round this weekend, 22-23. January.

Follow games that matter: GB-DET (13.00 ET)

Matchup with wildcard games: Goodbye


lar

What Los Angeles has already found: The Rams are in the playoffs, but they have not yet secured the division title.

What’s at stake for the Rams on Sunday: LA can win NFC West with a win or a Cardinals loss. However, the Rams cannot win the conference’s topseed. They do not finish higher than No. 2 and not lower than No. 5 in the conference.

What ESPN’s FPI says: The Rams have a 75% chance of winning the NFC West.

Follow games that matter: SF-LAR (16:25 ET) | SEA-ARI (16:25 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: vs. Eagles


tb

What Tampa Bay has already found: The Buccaneers are in the playoffs and are NFC South champions for the first time since 2007.

What’s at stake for the Buccaneers on Sunday: Not a lot. Buccaneers could be No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 in the conference – but the top seed is not an option.

Follow games that matter: CAR-TB (16:25 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: vs. 49ers


dal

What Dallas has already found: The Cowboys are NFC East champions for the fourth time in the last eight seasons. They ended their regular season with a 51-26 win over the Eagles on Saturday.

What’s at stake for the Cowboys on Sunday: Dallas cannot earn the NFC’s topseed, and it will finish somewhere from No. 2 to No. 4 in the conference standings.

Currently expected wildcard games: vs. Cardinals


ari

What Arizona has already achieved: The Cardinals are in the playoffs and it can still win NFC West.

What’s at stake for the Cardinals on Sunday: To win the division, Arizona needs a win and a Rams loss. But even if it wins NFC West, it may not serve the conference’s topseed.

What ESPN’s FPI says: The Cardinals have a 25% chance of winning NFC West.

Follow games that matter: SEA-ARI (16:25 ET) | SF-LAR (16:25 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: at the Cowboys


sf

What San Francisco has already found: Nothing yet. The Niners are looking for the last wildcard spot in the NFC.

What’s at stake for the 49ers on Sunday: If the Niners win, they’re in it. If they lose, the Saints must also lose. San Francisco can only finish as No. 6 when it comes to the playoffs.

What ESPN’s FPI says: San Francisco has a 62% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Follow games that matter: SF-LAR (16:25 ET) | NO-ATL (16:25 ET)

Currently expected wildcard games: at Buccaneers


phi

What Philadelphia has already found: The Eagles are in the playoffs. They ended their regular season with a 51-26 loss to the Cowboys on Saturday.

What’s at stake for the Eagles on Sunday: Little. Philadelphia cannot win the NFC East and it will end with either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

Currently expected wildcard games: at Rams


Currently expected outside the playoffs

no

What New Orleans has already figured out: Nothing yet, and the Saints are not controlling their playoff fate.

What’s at stake for the Saints on Sunday: First, the Saints must win. Second, they need the 49ers to lose. If both of these things happen, New Orleans is in and would be the No. 7 seed.

What ESPN’s FPI says: New Orleans has a 38% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Follow games that matter: NO-ATL (16:25 ET) | SF-LAR (16:25 ET)

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Draft positioning

FPI chance to earn No. 1 choice: 84%

How the Jaguars win the top pick: The Jaguars win by a loss or a Lions victory.

Follow games that matter: IND-JAX (13.00 ET) | GB-DET (13.00 ET)


det

FPI chance to earn No. 1 choice: 16%

How the lions win the top choice: The Lions claim the top spot in the draft if they lose and the Jaguars win.

Follow games that matter: GB-DET (1 pm ET) | IND-JAX (13.00 ET)

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