NFL wild-card betting: Tom Brady’s story against NFC East

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In the regular season, underdogs (53%) and unders (52%) were both profitable. Recently over the wild-card weekend, both have been successful. Underdogs are 15-3 ATS in wild card games over the last four seasons, and since the division reorganization in 2002, unders have come through 60% of the time.

This weekend features probably the biggest underdog in the history of wild-card weekends, with the Kansas City Chiefs being preferred over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has not been that big of an underdog since Super Bowl XXX in 1995. The story is against the Steelers, as double-digit home favorites are 7-0 ATS in the wildcard round.

This week also features two division rematches as the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills and the Arizona Cardinals face the Los Angeles Rams. Since 2014, the underdogs have been 7-0 ATS in division rematch in the off-season (5-2 live). Arizona was 6-0 straight as an underdog in the regular season, the best character of the Super Bowl era.

Statistics for regular season

favorites: 126-140-3 ATS (.474); 169-99-1 SU

Home team: 129-140-3 ATS (.480); 140-131-1 SU

Sub: 144-125-3 (.535) this season


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Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5), Saturday, 4:30 ET

  • Las Vegas had 8-9 ATS this season (9-8 unders). Cincinnati was 10-7 ATS (8-8-1 over / under).

  • Derek Carr is 19-13 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons.

  • Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 straight in its last seven games as an underdog by at least five points (since Week 5 last season).

  • Cincinnati has covered five straight and 10 of its last 12 games against Las Vegas. When these two teams met in November, Cincinnati won and covered as two-point favorites, 32-13.

  • Cincinnati has covered three games in a row as an underdog (2-1 SU).

  • Cincinnati have lost eight playoff games in a row (1-7 ATS), and the last win came back in 1990. Cincinnati scored 17 or fewer points in each game.

  • Since 2017, teams favored with at least five points in the wildcard round have been 1-10 ATS and 5-6 straight.

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4), Saturday, 8:15 ET

  • Bill Belichick is 55-29-1 ATS as an underdog with the Patriots, including the playoffs. Belichick is also 5-2 ATS as an underdog against Buffalo.

  • Bill Belichick is 32-18 ATS with less than six days to prepare as New England head coach including playoffs. He has 13-2 ATS in that spot since 2016, even though he lost directly as the favorite in his last playoff game in that spot (wild card game 2019 against Tennessee).

  • New England had a coverage margin of +6.18 points per game this season, the best grade in the NFL this season.

  • New England has 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.

  • Bill Belichick is 5-2 ATS with New England as the underdog against Buffalo.

  • Buffalo are favored against New England for the fourth time in their last five meetings after being favored in just one game across their previous 33 meetings.

  • Buffalo are 3-0-1 ATS across their last four games.

  • Rookie quarterbacks are 0-6 straight in the offseason since 2010 (2-4 ATS). The last three rookie quarterbacks to reach the offseason went 0-3 ATS and straight (since 2016).

  • Since 2014, the underdogs have been 7-0 ATS in division rematch in the off-season (5-2 live).

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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9), Sunday, 1 ET

  • Philadelphia was 8-8-1 ATS this season (10-7 overs). Tampa Bay had 9-8 ATS this season (9-8 overs).

  • Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records this season (1-7 straight).

  • Since 2001, Philadelphia has been 10-1 ATS as an underdog after the season (6-5 straight). Philadelphia has covered in five of its last six playoff games.

  • Tampa Bay has 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.

  • Tom Brady has covered three straight and six of his last nine playoff games.

  • Tom Brady has 0-5 ATS (2-3 direct) against NFC East opponents in the playoffs.

  • Tom Brady is 2-3 ATS in the wild-card round, including 0-3 ATS in his last three wild-card games (2009, 2019, 2020).

  • Since 2017, teams favored with at least five points in the wildcard round have been 1-10 ATS and 5-6 straight.

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San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3), Sunday, 4:30 ET

  • Dallas is 10-3 ATS (10-3 SU) as the favorite this season, the best coverage percentage in the NFL (min. 2 games as the favorite).

  • Jimmy Garoppolo is 13-4 ATS in his career as an underdog (12-5 direct) including playoffs.

  • San Francisco is 2-1 straight and ATS as an underdog this season.

  • San Francisco went 7-2 ATS from Week 10, just for the best coverage percentage in the NFL over that period.

  • Over the past three seasons, San Francisco is 10-7 (fourth best in the NFL) direct and 12-5 ATS (second best in the NFL) as an underdog.

  • Mike McCarthy is 11-6-1 ATS in his off-season career, all with Green Bay. He is 4-1-1 ATS in the wildcard round. However, he is 0-5 direct and 2-2-1 ATS against NFC West opponents.

  • Dallas had a coverage margin of +5.94 points per game this season, the second-best coverage margin in the NFL this season.

pitkc

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5), Sunday, 8:15 ET

  • The largest spread ever in a wild-card game is 11.5 points. Double-digit favorites are 7-1 direct and ATS in the wildcard round, with double-digit home favorites with 7-0 direct and ATS.

  • Ben Roethlisberger has never been an underdog of 11 points or more in his career. Roethlisberger has been a double-digit underdog only twice, and has gained 0-2 ATS in these matches. One of those cases came in Week 16 at home against Kansas City (+10, lost by 26).

  • Pittsburgh has not been at least 11 points underdog since Super Bowl XXX in the 1995 season against Dallas (+13.5, lost by 10). The second longest span without being at least 11 points underdog belongs to Baltimore (2007).

  • There have been four 12-point riots in the Super Bowl era. The last such major disruption was in the Super Bowl XLII in 2007 (the New York Giants disrupted New England as 12.5 point underdogs).

  • Ten of Kansas City’s 17 games this season have gone over the total, equal to the second-highest over percentage in the NFL this season.

  • Kansas City went 5-1 straight and ATS against teams with winning records from Week 10, the best in the NFL among wild-card teams.

  • This is the second time in Patrick Mahomes’ career that he is a double-digit favorite in the playoffs (1-0 ATS). He is 6-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his career in the regular season.

  • Ben Roethlisberger is 3-1-1 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs.

  • Since 2017, teams favored with at least five points in the wildcard round have been 1-10 ATS and 5-6 straight.

arilar

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4), Monday, 8:15 ET on ESPN

  • Arizona is 6-0 ATS and directly as an underdog this season. These are the most direct victories as an underdog in a single season without a loss in the Super Bowl era.

  • Teams that go 2-0 ATS or better as underdogs in the regular season are 15-25-1 as underdogs in the off-season (Arizona: 6-0 ATS as underdog).

  • Arizona was 8-1 straight and ATS away this season.

  • Sean McVay has 9-1 ATS against Arizona and 5-1 ATS against Kliff Kingsbury. Los Angeles was favored in all but one of these games (underdogs in previous meeting in week 14).

  • Sean McVay is 17-8-1 ATS with at least seven days between games. Kliff Kingsbury is 8-5 ATS with at least seven days between matches (7-2 ATS as an underdog).

  • Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have gone over the total number.

  • Since 2014, the underdogs have been 7-0 ATS in division rematch in the off-season (5-2 live).

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