NFL Week 2 Bets: ATS, over unders and trends

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With a week of NFL action in the books, let’s walk around the league to spot the relevant betting trends so far.

Underdogs went 12-4 ATS in Week 1, most covers of underdogs in Week 1 during the Super Bowl Era. Green Bay was blown out of New Orleans in Week 1, but good news for the Green Bay players in Week 2; Since the start of the 2019 season, Green Bay is 6-0 ATS after a SU loss. Green Bay is a 10.5-point favorite in Week 2 when it hosts Detroit on Monday night football.

Teddy Bridgewater is 35-13 ATS starting in the NFL, including 13-7 ATS as the favorite and 4-1 ATS as the road favorite. Bridgewater and Denver are 6-point favorites in Jacksonville this week. This will be just the fourth time that Cleveland has been a double-digit favorite since 2000. Cleveland is 2-1 ATS at that point. Week 2 has three different teams favored by two digits (Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Cleveland). It is most teams that have benefited by two digits in a week 2 since 2006 (five were favored by two digits).

General NFL Trends

  • Underdogs: 11-4 ATS

  • Road maintenance: 9-7 ATS

  • Subs: 9-7


New York Giants on Washington Football Team (-3.5), Thursday, 8:20 ET

New York is 5-12 ATS in September since 2017 and 9-19-1 ATS since 2013.

New York is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2018 season and 18-6 ATS on the road over the same span.

New York is 3-0 ATS in games with less than six days of rest under Joe Judge.

New York is 5-1 ATS against NFC East under Joe Judge.

Washington is 3-5-1 ATS after a direct loss under Ron Rivera.

New York is 13-3-1 to under since the start of last season, the highest under percent in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3), Sunday, 1 ET

Chicago is 4-11 ATS after a direct loss over the last three seasons.

Chicago has failed to cover each of its last three games as a home favorite. It is also 2-8 ATS over the last ten as a favorite.

Cincinnati has only won one of its last 16 road games straight up (1-14-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) since the start of the 2019 season.

Andy Dalton has failed to cover every time as a home favorite since the 2018 season (0-4 ATS over spreads).

Houston Texans of the Cleveland Browns (-12.5), Sunday, 1 ET

Tyrod Taylor has covered his last six starts including the playoffs and he is 5-0 ATS since leaving the bills after the 2017 season.

Houston is 6-0 ATS against Cleveland since the start of the 2006 season. Houston has also covered each of his last three games as an underdog.

This is the third time Baker Mayfield has been a double-digit favorite in his career, 1-1 ATS at that spot.

This is the fourth time the Browns have been double-digit favorites since 2000. It is the second-fewest such game in the NFL during this span (Lions-3). Cleveland is 2-1 ATS at that point.

Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1 ET

Los Angeles is 10-4-1 ATS in play in September since Sean McVay became head coach in 2017.

Sean McVay is 38-26-2 ATS in his career (regular season).

Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS as a home under Frank Reich.

The under is 25-16 in Carson Wentz starting since 2018 including the playoffs, and the under has hit in seven straight games.

Carson Wentz is 7-4 ATS has an underdog at home in his career (0-1 with Indianapolis).

Buffalo Bills (-3) at the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 ET

Buffalo games have gone 13-6-1 over since the start of last season (0-1 this season).

Miami is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog with five straight covers. Tua Tagovailoa is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.

Miami is 12-5 ATS since the start of last season, the best coverage percentage in the NFL over this range.

Miami has covered five of its last six games against AFC East opponents.

Josh Allen is 11-4-1 ATS on the way in his career.

Each of the last four matches between these teams has gone over the total.

New England Patriots (-5.5) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 ET

New England is 16-2 SU over its last 18 games (7-11 ATS) against New York over the last ten seasons.

The maintenance is 27-13 in New England road matches since the start of the 2016 season.

New England have failed to cover in five of their last six games as favorites.

New York has covered four of its last five home games.

New York has failed to cover a game in September since 2019 (0-4 ATS in 2020).

New York has 6-11 ATS since the start of last season, which equates to the worst coverage rate in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 1 ET

Kyle Shanahan is 7-17-2 ATS as the favorite in the base game, including 1-8-1 ATS (6-4 direct) as the favorite on at least seven points.

Philadelphia has covered each of its last five home games.

Philadelphia has 3-9 ATS in September since the start of the 2018 season.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 6-10-2 ATS as a favorite since becoming a 49ers starter.

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6), Sunday, 1 ET

Las Vegas has covered each of its last four games against Pittsburgh. Las Vegas has also covered each of its last three as a road underdog.

Las Vegas is 0-3 ATS in its last three internationals, while Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS in its last three as the favorite.

Ben Roethlisberger is 32-23-2 ATS in his career as the home favorite on six or more points.

Derek Carr is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog on six or more points since the start of the 2018 season.

Las Vegas is 14-3 over since the start of last season, the highest over percentage in the NFL.

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 ET

Since the start of the 2018 season, New Orleans is 11-3 ATS when the line drops between -3 and +3. At the same time, New Orleans is 18-6 ATS on the road.

New Orleans is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2016 season.

New Orleans has 5-1 ATS against NFC South opponents since the start of last season.

The transition is 10-3 in the last 13 matches between these teams.

Carolina is 8-2 ATS over the last ten games as an underdog.

Denver Broncos (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 ET

Denver was the only team in the NFL last season that was an underdog in every game. It will now be favored in its first two games this season.

Jacksonville has covered five of its last six games against Denver since the start of the 2007 season.

Since the start of the 2017 season, Denver has 7-14-2 ATS as a favorite.

Teddy Bridgewater is 35-13 ATS starting in the NFL, including 13-7 ATS as the favorite and 4-1 ATS as the road favorite.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-4), Sunday at. 4:05 ET

Minnesota has covered each of its five games against the Cardinals since the start of the 2011 season.

The transition is 8-1 in Minnesota games that follow a loss since the start of last season.

Kirk Cousins ​​is 5-9-1 ATS as a road underdog since becoming a Viking who started QB.

Kyler Murray is 2-5 ATS as the home favorite in his career.

Minnesota has 6-11 ATS since the start of last season, which equates to the worst coverage rate in the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13), Sunday, 4:05 ET

Tom Brady is 201-137-7 ATS in his career including the playoffs (.596).

Tom Brady is 35-31 ATS in his career as a double-digit favorite.

Bruce Arians is 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his coaching career.

Tampa Bay covered seven of its last ten games going back to last season, including the playoffs.

Atlanta has covered seven of its last eight games as a double-digit underdog.

All six meetings between these teams since the start of the 2018 season have exceeded the total amount.

Tom Brady is 5-1 ATS in his last six meetings with Matt Ryan.

Dallas Cowboys of the Los Angeles Chargers (-3), Sunday, 4:25 ET

Dak Prescott has gone 1-5 ATS starting since the start of last season. Five of his six starts went over the total, including the last five.

Dak Prescott is 14-8-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.

Los Angeles has covered each of its last three meetings with Dallas.

Los Angeles is 5-14-1 ATS as the home favorite since the start of the 2018 season.

Dallas has a 6-11 ATS since the start of last season that equals the worst coverage rate in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5), Sunday, 4:25 ET

Tennessee has gone 12-4-1 over since the start of last season. Over is 21-5-1 in the basic game of Ryan Tannehill starting since joining the team.

Since the start of the 2016 season, Tennessee is 20-10-2 ATS after a SU loss.

The transition is 10-2 in Tennessee’s last 12 road games.

Seattle has covered five September games in a row.

Russell Wilson is 38-29-2 ATS as home favorite in his career.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) of the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 8:20 ET

Lamar Jackson is 6-3 straight and ATS in primetime matches in the base game.

Since the start of the 2018 season, Baltimore is 9-1 ATS as an underdog.

Since the start of the 2019 season, Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS when the line drops between -3 and +3.

Kansas City have gone 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games going back to last season (including playoffs).

Kansas City is 19-9 ATS in September under Andy Reid (11-3 ATS since 2017 and 8-3 ATS with Patrick Mahomes running).

Patrick Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS away in his career.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-10.5), Monday, 8:15 ET on ESPN

Green Bay is downright 6-2 and ATS in September under Matt LaFleur, including 3-0 last season (0-1 this season).

Aaron Rodgers is 43-25-2 ATS at home over the last ten seasons. In his career, he is 62-38-2 ATS at home.

Since the start of the 2019 season, Green Bay is 6-0 ATS after a SU loss.

Detroit has covered seven of its last eight meetings with Green Bay.

Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS in his career as a double-digit road underdog.

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