NFL Week 12 betting tips: Five props that jump

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Joe Mixon’s early exit in Week 11 prevented him from breaking out. Samaje Perine took the plunge and was consequently added 15% in ESPN’s fantasy leagues heading into this weekend. While that situation was disappointing, it was nothing compared to the gut punch Dameon Pierce delivered. Pierce’s carry and weight have dropped steadily over the past three weeks. Perhaps a trade from Davis Mills to Kyle Allen will improve things, but the outlook isn’t nearly as sunny as it was a month ago. He is currently RB16 in ESPN’s consensus rankings.

But enough of the negative, this is a time to be thankful!

And I’m thrilled that three of my five props hit in week 11. Let’s push for perfection this go-around.

Using ESPN’s metrics database and a little assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppei’m here to help you win in fantasy and in the books.

Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5) at Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit

Pick: Devin Singletary UNDER 57.5 rushing yards

It’s a trap. Between the matchup and the game script, fantasy managers could be tempted to over-project Singletary’s potential production. Don’t fall for it.

Buffalo ranks fourth in overall pass rate. Game script doesn’t change that. The Bills also rank first in pass percentage when they lead. On the rare occasion that the team commits to the ground game, running backs rush to the left more than 35% of the time (ninth highest). Interestingly, the Lions are allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game. carry to RBs when running left (third most on all other carries).

Even if this game gets out of hand and the Lions can’t cover the nine-point spread, there’s no guarantee that Singletary will be tapped to dry up. James Cook recorded 11 totes in an eight-point win over Cleveland last Sunday. He was also more efficient than Singletary, posting the same amount of rushing yards on 7 fewer carries. A performance that helps keep the rookie in the mix.

Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5) at Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit

Pick: Gabe Davis OVER 55.5 receiving yards

The problem with Davis has always been volume. Since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye, however, Davis has averaged over 7 targets per game. competition. Last week he hit a season-high 32% field goal percentage. Turns out, feeding the 23-year-old is good for the offense. Davis has cleared the above line 13 times during his career. In those 13 outings, Buffalo has outscored the opposition by an average of 10.7 points. And what do I know, the Bills are 9.5 point favorites on Turkey Day.

The spread is a sign of Buffalo’s offense…as well as Detroit’s pass defense. The Lions have allowed the sixth-highest deep pass rate (55.1%) and the second-highest average depth of target (aDOT) against (8.5 yards). In the aforementioned 13 contests in which Davis recorded at least 56 yards, he also posted an aDOT of 18 yards. By that math, he only needs to catch four balls to break even, which seems doable given the matchup and the Bills’ pass-happy approach. He’s my WR20 for the week.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 45.5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Pick: Ezekiel Elliott OVER 46.5 rushing yards

Jerry Jones doesn’t care about your fantasy team. It doesn’t matter that Tony Pollard generates 2.8 more yards per carry. touch than Elliot. Or that he nearly doubled Elliot’s rushing yards on the same number of carries last week. Elliot continues to record double-digit totes, averaging 3.7 more carries per game. competition than Pollard.

Elliot has recorded at least 15 carries in six of his last seven games. That’s the same number of totes he’s dealt with coming off the knee problem that sidelined him for a few contests. Meanwhile, running backs against the Giants have cleared 10 carries eleven separate times this season (and Elliot hasn’t gone below that number at any point during 2022). Therefore, volume should not be an issue. However, it could be efficiency.

Still, the 11 aforementioned RBs combined to average 5.5 yards per carry. carry when they faced the G-Men. Additionally, New York has allowed 957 rushing yards (11th most) between the tackles. It is an average per game of nearly 96 rushing yards up the middle. Elliot handles the lion’s share of interior runs and has recorded 50 more such rushes than Pollard since the start of last season.

Between game script (-10) and matchup (NYG allows 4.7 YPC), Elliot can move to 60 rushing yards and a score. He’s a low-end RB2/high-end flex for fantasy purposes.

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

Pick: Kirk Cousins ​​​​OVER 0.5 INT

Kirk Cousins​​​​ has thrown eight interceptions so far in 2022. Three of those came in Week 2 in Philly. That match was in prime time. So is this one. Cousins​​​​ has been picked off in seven of his last eight prime-time outings.

Quarterbacks tend to throw picks when under pressure. New England is third in the NFL in pressure rate (33.8%). Consequently, Cousins ​​has been off target on nearly 28% of pressure pass attempts over the past two seasons. The addition of a talent like Justin Jefferson could certainly boost a signal-caller’s confidence. However, the Patriots rise to the challenge. New England has given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts over the last four weeks and just four TDs for the position on the season.

Finally, Vegas projects a close game with the spread just 2.5 points in the Vikings’ favor. After a disastrous performance in Dallas, there’s a good chance Cousins ​​will feel the pressure and start pushing. One blunder and miscalculation.

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

Pick: TJ Hockenson OVER 4.5 receptions

Minnesota likes to play fast. In fact, the Vikings are sixth in passing percentage, fourth in passing percentage when trailing and third in passing percentage when trailing by at least one field goal. (Remember, the spread is 2.5 in Minnesota’s favor.) That translates into a high number of pass attempts for Cousins ​​(37.7 per Noting the lockdown nature of New England’s cornerbacks, however, Cousins ​​will likely hone in on Hockenson and boost his tight ends’ already significant number of options. Hockenson runs a route on more than 80% of dropbacks (up from 74.8% when he was in Detroit). Additionally, since joining the Vikings, drew at least nine looks in every game, making him the only tight end in the league to post nine-plus targets over three consecutive outings.The former Lion has a 66.2% catch rate during the season Another nine look at that conversion rate and he closes the week with six grabs.

Bonus Pumpkin Pie Prop

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

Pick: Jakobi Meyers OVER 54.5 receiving yards

Meyers isn’t a fantasy star, but he’s a reliable flex option. He has recorded double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this year. His numbers have actually increased. And I’m not just talking about the TDs. Meyers’ YAC per catch is up 25% in 2022. That’s key to this matchup, as Minnesota has given up the ninth-most yards after the catch so far this year.

New England’s slot is averaging 4.9 catches per snap. competition. Since the beginning of 2021, in which he has converted four passes, he has subsequently cleared 60 yards. The total yardage goes up to 67.4 yards per carry. play when you collect five or more balls. It’s close (that’s why it’s a bonus), but a 5-59-0 stat line seems within reach, especially when you note that nearly 65% ​​of New England’s yards come through the air when walking into the week as underdogs.

Follow Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF

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