NFL Week 12 betting nuggets: Hottest favorite meets best underdog

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Road teams continue to dominate this season and cover almost 59% of the time. It’s on its way to becoming the highest rated in the Super Bowl era. Road holding is also four games over .500. It would be the second season in a row that the road team had a winning record, having never happened before since the 1970 AFL / NFL merger.

This week features some of the closest lines we’ve seen all season, as the average line of 3.5 is the sixth-shortest in a week in the Super Bowl era.

One of those games shows the San Francisco 49ers putting up a field goal against the Minnesota Vikings at home. Kyle Shanahan has lost nine games in a row as the home favorite, which is the longest streak by any coach in the Super Bowl era. Overall, he is 3-16-2 ATS.

On the other hand, the longest active cover streak in the league belongs to the New England Patriots, who have won and covered five in a row after their 2-4 start. They were 12-1 to win the division after week 6 and now they are in first place. However, the Tennessee Titans are 5-0 straight as an underdog this season and hope to join the Cincinnati Bengals in 2009 as the only teams to win their first six games as an underdog in a single season.

Season statistics

Favorites: 8-7 ATS (5-8 SU), 70-92-1 ATS this season (98-64-1 SU)

Road maintenance: 11-4 ATS (8-7 SU); 96-68-1 ATS this season (84-80-1 SU)

Sub: 10-5 (92-71-2 this season)

Best ATS record: Green Bay (9-2), Dallas (8-2), Arizona (8-3)

Worst ATS records: New York Jets (2-8), Washington (3-7), Tampa Bay (3-6)

Keep favorites in every match: Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Teams to be underdog in each match: Detroit, Houston, New York Jets (Houston favored this week)


tenne

Tennessee Titans on New England Patriots (-7), Sunday at. 1 ET

  • New England has covered five games in a row, the longest active streak in the league.

  • Tennessee is 5-0 straight as an underdog this season. The only team in the Super Bowl to win its first six games as an underdog is the 2009 Cincinnati (started 6-0).

  • Tennessee is 4-1 ATS away this season.

  • New England is 0-5 ATS with more than six days of rest since the start of last season.

nyjhou

New York Jets in Houston Texans (-2.5), Sunday at. 1 ET

  • Neither team has been favored in a match all season into this week. The only other team that has not yet been a favorite is Detroit.

  • New York is 2-8 ATS this season, including 0-3 ATS when you get less than six points.

  • New York is 0-5 ATS away this season.

  • Houston has 3-1 ATS this season, with Tyrod Taylor starting. Taylor has 9-1 ATS in his last 10 starts including the playoffs, which go back to 2017.

phinyg

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) in the New York Giants, Sunday at. 1 ET

  • Daniel Jones is 5-9 ATS in his career as a home underdog, but he has won his last two fights as a home underdog.

  • None of New York’s five home games have gone over the total (0-4-1).

  • New York has covered four of the last five meetings and six of the last eight. Philadelphia has been favored in all of these matches.

  • New York has 5-0 ATS from less than six days of rest since the start of last season.

tbind

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at. 1 ET

  • Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS away this season.

  • Indianapolis has covered four games in a row as an underdog.

  • Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

atl

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Eight of Jacksonville’s 10 games have gone below the total this season.

  • Atlanta is 3-6 ATS as the favorite since the start of last season and 9-17 ATS as the favorite since 2018.

  • Atlanta has 6-1 ATS all the time against Jacksonville with five straight covers.

carmia

Carolina Panthers (-2) at the Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Miami is 0-3 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Miami has covered three games in a row.

  • Carolina is 10-3 ATS on the road under Matt Rhule.

pitcin

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5), Sunday at. 1 ET

  • Ben Roethlisberger is 6-1 direct and ATS as an underdog against Cincinnati. Roethlisberger is 23-12 ATS in his career against Cincinnati including the playoffs, though he has lost each of the last two meetings directly as a favorite.

  • Cincinnati has failed to cover its last three home games.

  • Zac Taylor is 3-6 ATS as favorite and 1-3 ATS as home favorite.

lacden

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) in the Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • Denver is 0-4 ATS in its last four games when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Denver is 9-2 ATS from a farewell since 2010, including 2-0 ATS under Vic Fangio.

  • Eight of Denver’s 10 games have gone below the total this season.

  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games and 0-3 ATS in its last three games as the favorite.

minsf

Minnesota Vikings of the San Francisco 49ers (-3), Sunday at. 4:25 ET

  • Minnesota has played nine games with one score, most in the NFL, including three overtime games and five games decided by three points or less.

  • San Francisco has lost nine games in a row directly as the home favorite, all since the start of last season. It is the longest losing streak as a home favorite in the Super Bowl era. San Francisco is 0-4 as the home favorite this season. Shanahan is 8-13 straight as the home favorite, the second-worst character of any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 15 games). He is 3-16-2 ATS as the home favorite, the worst character of any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 10 games).

  • Minnesota is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Minnesota has covered four straight road games (4-1 ATS this season).

largb

Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Green Bay are 8-0 ATS after a three-season loss under Matt LaFleur.

  • Green Bay has covered seven meetings in a row, including all six with Aaron Rodgers.

  • Green Bay is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season. All four matches went below the total.

  • Aaron Rodgers is 10-6 ATS against Matthew Stafford, but Stafford has covered four of the last five meetings.

  • Aaron Rodgers has only been a home underdog six times in his career since entering this week including the playoffs. The last time was in Week 2 of 2018, when Green Bay equalized Minnesota, 29-29. Rodgers is 4-1-1 ATS and 3-2-1 directly as an underdog at home in his career.

clebal

Cleveland Browns of the Baltimore Ravens (-3.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET

  • Baltimore is 2-6 ATS as the favorite this season and 1-6 ATS in Lamar Jackson starts (all as at least three points favorite).

  • Baltimore has covered the last three meetings.

  • Cleveland has 1-7 ATS in division games and 5-14 ATS in conference games since the start of last season.

seawas

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (-1), Monday at 8:15 ET

  • Seattle matches are 8-1-1 for during this season, including 5-0-1 after a loss and 6-0 in conference matches. Below is 13-2 in Russell Wilson’s last 15 regular season starts.

  • The home underdog is 4-0 ATS on Monday Night Football this season.

  • Seattle is 2-6 ATS as the road favorite since the start of last season (1-6 ATS in the last seven games).

  • Seattle is 2-5 ATS in Russell Wilson starting this season, and has not covered in the last three cases.

  • Washington is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Monday night games. Last year’s outrageous victory in Pittsburgh got a nine-game ATS and a straight losing streak in Monday’s games.

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