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The NFL offseason may be the perfect time to pick a Super Bowl winner, as the odds tend to get shorter as the regular season approaches.
With plenty of teams making moves through trades, free agency and the NFL draft, our betting experts provide their insight into which teams they believe offer the best value in the Super Bowl, conference and division futures markets ahead of the 2022 preseason.
Monday: NFL victory in total
Tuesday: Miss the playoffs
Wednesday: league leaders
Thursday: Prize winners
Friday: Super Bowl, conference and division odds
All odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Which team is your favorite to play for to win the Super Bowl next season?
Aaron Schatz, Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders: Give me the Philadelphia Eagles (+3000). Yes, there are still questions about Jalen Hurts as a quarterback. But the Eagles added a wealth of talent in the offseason, and Football Outsiders now have Philadelphia with an average projection in the top 10 for both offense and defense. The Eagles also have the easiest expected schedule in the league and should fight for a No. 1 seed and goodbye in the first round, even if they are not as good as the Buccaneers or Rams.
Eric Moody, ESPN Betting Analyst: I like the Denver Broncos (+1600). Offseason addition of quarterback Russell Wilson is huge. He won a Super Bowl with the Seahawks and should have won two. Wilson reached the playoffs in eight of his 10 seasons with Seattle and should end Denver’s playoff drought. He will be the center of the team and has a fantastic supporting cast of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Javonte Williams with a formidable defense. Wilson is poised to have an excellent season in 2022 as the Chiefs’ reign at AFC West draws to a close.
Erin Dolan, ESPN betting analyst: The Buffalo Bills (+650). The Bills will be hungry after losing an overtime heartbreaker to the Chiefs in the AFC Division Round. Josh Allen enters his fifth season as a pro after throwing in 4,407 yards and 36 touchdowns, while adding 763 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground. He can give eye-catching numbers and will continue to do so with Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary & Co. Plus, the addition of Von Miller on the edge will only help Bills’ already strong defense. Buffalo has the offense and defense to win the AFC East, the conference and then the Super Bowl if it can stay healthy.
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN Betting Analyst: Baltimore Ravens (+2200). Baltimore was a Super Bowl favorite last season, with an 8-3 record through Week 10 before Lamar Jackson was injured. The Ravens handled a ton of injuries last season as JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Ronnie Stanley, Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and Derek Wolfe all missed time. If Baltimore can just stay healthy, it will once again have a roster that can compete with the AFC’s elite. The additions of Marcus Williams in free agency and Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum in the April draft were generally seen as clever and knowledgeable. I expect the Ravens to win AFC North and stand toe-to-toe in the playoffs with the Bills and which teams come from AFC West.
Since NFC is the perceived weak conference, do you see more NFC teams than AFC teams given the potential easier way to the Super Bowl?
Shatz: Surprise! In fact, our projections at Football Outsiders are not dominated by the AFC. Six of the top 10 teams in the expected DVOA are NFC teams, not AFC teams. The AFC is better throughout the conference, while the NFC is more separate with teams that look good and teams that look very bad. The top five teams in DVOA projections are also NFC teams.
Dollar: The AFC is the superior conference. An AFC team is likely to win the Super Bowl in my eyes. That said, eliminating the AFC and choosing an NFC team based on competition and the road to the Super Bowl can be a success. There is absolute value in looking at NFC teams. It’s all preference.
moody: While the AFC has lost the last two Super Bowls, it had won five of the six previous championship games. NFC is very top heavy and I only see the Buccaneers and Packers as the best bids to win the Super Bowl in that division. I think it’s going to be hard for the Rams to repeat as champions, a feat that has not been done since 2004. Therefore, betting on AFC teams seems more appealing.
The AFC is filled this year with so many players signing or being traded to AFC teams. Which team do you think has the best value in that conference?
Fulgham: Los Angeles Chargers (+850) for giving me the best value in the AFC. They are undoubtedly as deep as the bills. The only difference is that they still have a QB on a rookie deal. They get a much larger percentage of their cap for the rest of their list than any other AFC challenger in the league.
Dollar: Futures are all about value, and typically the favorite on the board is not what you want to bet on in June. But I think the Bills win the AFC. If you look at the board, Buffalo has +350 odds of winning the conference where the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers and Cleveland Browns round the top five. The bills are in the middle of the pack in terms of strength on schedule, while the three AFC West teams all have to meet every two times during the season. On paper, the Bills have the best chance of winning with their list despite how competitive the conference can be.
moody: The dolphins provide value in a packed AFC conference. Miami has improved its roster dramatically, adding Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead out of season. Coach Mike McDaniel runs Kyle Shanahan’s quarterback-friendly system, and that should help Tua Tagovailoa improve. If Tagovailoa can effectively deliver the football in the hands of the Dolphins’ playmakers, Miami should be able to win over 8.5 games.
The Bengals shocked everyone last season by running for the Super Bowl. Is there a team worth betting on that could do the same this year?
Seth Walder, ESPN analytics writer: The Steelers have 40-1 to reach the Super Bowl. They only need one huge break: that QB Kenny Pickett gets good right away. If he is, their receivers are solid and their defense offers some elite players.
Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN Betting Analyst: Indianapolis Colts at 25-1. Houston and Jacksonville are still rebuilding and I think the Titans are heading for a big step back after dealing with AJ Brown. It gives Indy an excellent chance for both a playoff spot and home playoff game to open the off-season by winning the AFC South. Matt Ryan is past his best age, but he has enough at his disposal, with a much better offensive line, to deliver consistent results to a well-balanced list.
Anita Marks, ESPN Betting Analyst: Fly, eagles, fly! The additions of AJ Brown and James Bradberry in free agency and the draft of Jordan Davis to complement an already solid defensive line, make me believe they will win NFC East. The Eagles have one of the easiest games in the league and can win 12 games, allowing them to secure No. 1 seed and home advantage through the playoffs.