NFL Betting Market Watch: Winter weather is coming, Patriots-Bills are totally falling

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Winter weather is in the forecast for the Patriots-Bills showdown in Buffalo on Monday Night Football.

Midweek forecasts required temperatures to drop to the upper 20s with gusts of 15-25 mph, according to Weather.com. Stronger winds from 20-30 mph, along with rain and snow, are expected during the day.

The points spread and the total on the game have dropped this week. In the early ranks up last week, the Bills were listed as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 46. On Wednesday, the line had dived to under three at several sportsbooks, and the total number was down to 43.5. Caesars Sportsbook reported on Wednesday that 84% of early cash bets on the total were below.

Here’s this week’s look at lines and effort:


NFL market

Here’s our weekly look at how the NFL betting market is shaping up this weekend.

For consistency, lines, totals and betting percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated. The bet percentages are not specific to the current line or total and are designed to provide a snapshot of the early action. The look-ahead lines were offered ahead of the previous week’s game. Most numbers reopened Sunday night.

dalno

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (Thursday)

Last week’s forward line: Cowboys -5, 48
Sunday: Cowboys -5.5, 47.5
Wednesday: Cowboys -4.5, 47.5
Spread action: 71% of bets and 58% of money wagered are on Cowboys.
Total action: 52% of the stakes and 53% of the money wagered are on over.

Comments: Dallas will be without head coach Mike McCarthy and several members of the coaching staff due to COVID protocols. … ESPN’s Ed Werder reported on Wednesday that Cowboys WR Amari Cooper is expected to play on Thursday.

phinyj

Philadelphia Eagles on New York Jets

Last week’s forward line: Eagles -6.5, 45
Sunday: Eagles -7, 46
Wednesday: Eagles -6.5, 45
Spread action: 67% of bets and 67% of money wagered are on the Eagles.
Total action: 74% of the bets are on below, but 78% of the bet money is on over.

tbatl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Atlanta Falcons

Last week’s forward line: Buccaneers -9.5, 50.5
Sunday: Buccaneers -10, 50
Wednesday: Buccaneers -11, 50.5
Spread action: 55% of bets and 88% of bet money are on Falcons.
Total action: 51% of the stakes and 54% of the money wagered are below.

arichi

Arizona Cardinals at the Chicago Bears

Last week’s forward line: Cardinals -7, 46.5
Sunday: Cardinals -7, 46
Wednesday: Cardinals -8, 45.5
Spread action: 79% of the bets are on the Cardinals, but 80% of the money wagered is on the Bears.
Total action: 68% of the stakes and 89% of the money wagered are below.

Comments: Forecasts indicate temperatures in the upper 30s, light rain and 13 mph winds.

laccin

Los Angeles Chargers at the Cincinnati Bengals

Last week’s forward line: Bengal -1.5, 48
Sunday: The Bengals -2.5, 51
Wednesday: Bengals -3 (-120), 50.5
Spread action: 71% of the bets are on Bengals, but 52% of the money wagered is on Chargers.
Total action: 62% of the bets are on over, but 80% of the bet money is on under.

mindet

Minnesota Vikings at the Detroit Lions

Last week’s forward line: Vikings -7.5, 48
Sunday: The Vikings -7, 48
Wednesday: Vikings -7, 46.5
Spread action: 63% of bets and 67% of bet money are on Vikings.
Total action: 81% of the stakes and 97% of the money wagered are below.

nygmia

New York Giants at the Miami Dolphins

Last week’s forward line: Dolphins -2. 43.5
Sunday: Dolphins -2.5, 42.5
Wednesday: Dolphins -3, 42
Spread action: 74% of the stakes and 94% of the money wagered are on the dolphins.
Total action: 50% of the stakes and 87% of the money wagered are below.

Comments: Giants QB Daniel Jones is unsure for Sunday’s match due to a tense neck.

indhou

Indianapolis Colts at the Houston Texans

Last week’s forward line: Hole -7, 46.5
Sunday: Hole -7.5, 46
Wednesday: Høl -9, 46
Spread action: 85% of the stakes and 97% of the money wagered are on the Colts.
Total action: 62% of the stakes and 91% of the money wagered are below.

wshlv

Washington Football Team of the Las Vegas Raiders

Last week’s forward line: Raiders -1.5, 48
Sunday: Raiders -2.5, 49
Wednesday: Raiders -2.5, 49.5
Spread action: 80% of the stakes and 72% of the money wagered are on Raiders.
Total action: 62% of the stakes are below, but 56% of the money wagered is above.

lar

Jacksonville Jaguars at the Los Angeles Rams

Last week’s forward line: Aries -12, 48
Sunday: Rams -13.5, 44.5
Wednesday: Aries -13, 48
Spread action: 63% of the stakes and 86% of the money wagered are on the Rams.
Total action: 85% of the stakes and 98% of the money wagered are below.

balpit

Baltimore Ravens at the Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week’s forward line: Ravne -3, 44.5
Sunday: Ravne -3.5, 44.5
Wednesday: Ravne -4.5, 44
Spread action: 64% of the stakes and 54% of the money wagered are on Ravens.
Total action: 69% of the stakes and 91% of the money wagered are below.

sfsea

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Last week’s forward line: Select them, 46
Sunday: 49ers -2.5, 46.5
Wednesday: 49ers -3 (-120), 45.5
Spread action: 85% of the stakes and 66% of the money wagered are on 49ers.
Total action: 76% of the stakes and 74% of the money wagered are below.

denkc

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Last week’s forward line: Chiefs -9.5, 49.5
Sunday: Chiefs -10, 49
Wednesday: Chiefs -10, 47
Spread action: 72% of the stakes and 50% of the money wagered are on Chiefs.
Total action: 79% of the stakes and 78% of the money wagered are below.

nebuf

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Monday)

Last week’s forward line: Bills -3.5, 46
Sunday: Bills -3, 45
Wednesday: Bills -2.5, 44
Spread action: 69% of the bets are on the Patriots, but 66% of the money wagered is on the bills.
Total action: 58% of the stakes and 84% of the money wagered are below.

Comments: The Patriots have covered the spread in six consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. New England is a 35-20-1 against the spread as a road underdog under coach Bill Belichick

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