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The Eagles acquisition of Gardner Minshew is remarkable, but the fantasy breakout wagon for Jalen Hurts should remain full.
Consistent with their desire to be a “quarterback factory,” the Philadelphia Eagles pushed all other possible suitors aside to acquire Gardner Minshew from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Nick Mullens was released to make room, and Minshew joins Joe Flacco on the depth map behind Jalen Hurts.
Head coach Nick Sirianni has been slow to anoint Hurts as the Eagles’ starting quarterback and even left the door open for Flacco to win the job at some point. But it’s all come from a facade to get Hurts to do the job, and the acquisition of Minshew is no different.
In a broader way, however, it makes sense for the Eagles to carry three skilled quarterbacks into a season where navigating COVID-19 protocols creates natural uncertainty.
Do not jump off Jalen Hurt’s fantasy carriage
As a rookie last season, Hurts started and finished three games. Here’s what he did in each, with his fantasy finish among quarterbacks.
Week 14: 167 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 106 rushing yards-QB13
Week 15: 338 passing yards, 3 TD, 0 INT; 63 rushing yards, 1 TD-QB1
Week 16: 342 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 69 rushing yards-QB12
From week 13-17, covering all five games he played more than 25 snaps, Hurts QB8 was in the imagination.
A search for “Jalen Hurts fantasy” (and probably everything in that direction) on Twitter shows a good portion of people (fantasy analysts even) who are already jumping off the bandwagon.
Admittedly, being an ongoing quarterback puts Hurts at greater risk of injury, and it adds risk to fantasy leaders. But that risk was already there, and it’s independent of the Eagles acquiring Minshew, as he’s probably an upgrade over Flacco and / or a bigger threat to take the starting job. The idea that Minshew will start five games (or one) this season without hurting Hurts is ridiculous.
Fantasy leaders who have already drafted Hurts (raise my hand) have probably drafted a solid second quarterback to cover the risk of injury (Matt Ryan in my case). Those with drafts yet to come can now keep an eye on a dip in Hurts’ ADP and buy the value if (when) it turns into something. In fact, the decline in his ADP has already taken place (via Fantasy Football Calculator).
ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator
The top-5/10 upside (among quarterbacks) is still here, and those who calmly assess the situation will climb on what they thought of Hurts 24 hours ago — and probably not suddenly be completely out.
Remember that there should be nothing that is a completely useless player in the imagination – just a player who does not look like good value on his ADP and thus is one to avoid. Hurts is now a threatening value, more than he was before, as he may be drifting into high-end QB2 ADP range for 12-team leagues.